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China’s medium term outlook: Will innovation save China from becoming old before it becomes rich? – With Bruegel


China’s economy has been decelerating steadily since 2010 but at an accelerated rate since the US-China trade war and, even more so, since the pandemic. While most forces are pushing growth down, innovation stands out as a potential cushion for such structural deceleration. How much can China do to smoothen that path and what does it mean for China’s quest to avoid the middle income trap?