Chinese official lending, infrastructure development and bilateral political alignment: The case of Africa
We are pleased to announce that a journal article, “Chinese official lending, Infrastructure Development and bilateral political alignment: The case of Africa”, authored by Clément Durif, Jean-Baptiste Monnier, and Jean-François Di Meglio has been published in the Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development, Vol 8, Issue 16, 2024.
This study investigates the link between debt and political alignment in international relations between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and African nations. Using recorded roll-call votes on United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) resolutions, we explore whether PRC investment in sovereign debt influences the voting behaviour of loan recipient countries. We compile voting data for African countries from 2000 to 2020 to calculate an annual voting affinity score as a proxy for political alignment. Concurrently, data on Chinese public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) loans to African governments are collected. A Two-Stage Least-Squares analysis is employed, using the ratio of Chinese PPG debt to GDP as an instrument to address endogeneity. Results reveal a negative impact of Chinese lending on African political support, while trade, foreign direct investment (FDI), and Chinese GDP positively influence political alignment. In high debt-risk African countries, interest rates have a negative impact, whereas loan maturity shows a positive effect. These findings suggest that Chinese loans, particularly under commercial terms, may have strained bilateral relations due to debt sustainability concerns. Nevertheless, the positive impacts of trade and FDI may enhance international relations, highlighting the limitations of China’s loan diplomacy in fostering long-term strategic alignment in Africa.
The journal article is available in Open Source, read it via the PDF button.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd9669
To cite this article: Clément Durif, Monnier, J.-B., & Di Meglio, J.-F. (2024). Chinese official lending, infrastructure development and bilateral political alignment: The case of Africa. Journal of Infrastructure Policy and Development, 8(16), 9669–9669. https://doi.org/10.24294/jipd9669
Clément Durif has received research support from Asia Centre. This work is part of a European Commission project “China Horizons” (formal name is “Dealing with a resurgent China” or DWARC) which has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation program under grant agreement number 101061700. The project is one of the EU-funded flagship projects to upgrade independent knowledge on China in Europe. The three-year project started in November 2022.