Pauline Geyer, sparker at Asia Centre, coached by François Issard, researcher at Asia Centre, published a paper analysing China-Taiwan tensions through DiploMatrix.
A detailed analysis of DiploMatrix’s bilateral tensions tracking tool illustrates steadily escalating tensions from 2015 to 2020 (the total tension index rises from 0.5 to 2.2-2.3) between China and Taiwan paralleling the ascension of the Democratic People’s Party (DPP) to power in Taipei. While the index is afterwards apparently stabilizing between 2 and 2.5 from 2020 to 2024 despite a notorious increase in Chinese military drills around the Island, the “Material tension” component of the index remains low as compared to other similar inter-state tension indexes in the region (China to Philippines for instance), up from 0.25 to 0.5 (a doubling over 10 years), which can be explained by a strategy shared by both parties to thoroughly avoid any direct confrontation in the air or at sea. The article provides an historical overview of noticeable events illustrating China-Taiwan bilateral relations with a focus on the period 2014-2024 which is the period when the DiploMatrix methodology has been applied in this review.
Read their whole analysis by clicking the PDF button.