Contents

– Editorial –

– Trends: THE U.S. AND THE INDO-PACIFIC UNDER TRUMP –

INSIGHTS

  • Signals, Symbols and Sales: Recent Trends in U.S. Policy Towards Taiwan (Maeve Whelan-Wuest)
  • An Unlikely Bromance: Trump, Duterte and the Future of Philippine-U.S. Alliance (Richard Javad Heydarian)
  • A Strong but Ambiguous Partnership : India-U.S. Ties under Trump (Sumit Kumar)
  • Assessing the Reliability of Abe and Trump’s Relationship in light of Past Efforts and Future Uncertainties (Kawashima Shin)

 

ASIAN VIEWS

  • [FR] Perspectives japonaises sur la relation Abe – Trump en 2017 : consolidation des relations nippo-américaines ou début d’inflexion ? (Sarah Tanke)
  • [FR] Le redéploiement d’armes nucléaires tactiques en Corée du Sud vu par Séoul et Washington (Léonie Allard et Névine Schepers)
  • [FR] Xi, Trump et l’Asie : une nouvelle ère aux caractéristiques chinoises pour les relations sino-américaines? (Florence Biot)

 

– Local analyses –

CHINA

  • [FR] Un renouveau du partenariat stratégique franco-chinois ? La visite du président Macron vue de Chine (Yves Heng-Lim)
  • Good for China, good for Hong Kong? The Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail Link and the Joint Checkpoint Controversy (Pierre Delbosc et Lingyue Tang)
  • [FR] Incident de Daxing : la politique urbaine de Pékin en débat (Margot De Groot Van Embden )

 

CAMBODIA

  • [FR] Le régime de Hun Sen en marche vers l’autoritarisme : risque d’isolement ou opportunité de réalignement international au profit du partenariat sino-cambodgien ? (Pierre Motin )

 

PAKISTAN

  • [FR] Les mobilisations contre le blasphème au Pakistan et la montée en puissance des Barelvis (Alix Philippon)

Asia Trends # 3 – Spring 2018 – The U.S. and the Indo-Pacific under Trump

Some extracts

SIGNALS, SYMBOLS AND SALES: RECENT TRENDS IN U.S. POLICY TOWARDS TAIWAN
Maeve Whelan-Wuest

Following an abrupt start to the relationship between the two states after then U.S. President-elect Donald Trump took an unprecedented phone call from Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen, U.S. policy towardsTaiwan has progressed through three primary mechanisms: diplomatic measures, defense reassurances and legislative messaging. This paper examines how U.S.-Taiwan relations have developed under the Trump administration through these avenues, and the opportunities and challenges that face Taipei and Washington in the immediate future.

 

AN UNLIKELY BROMANCE: TRUMP, DUTERTE AND THE FUTURE OF PHILIPPINE-U.S. ALLIANCE
Richard Javad Heydarian

The paper provides an overview of the Philippine-U.S. relations by focusing on three key areas. First, it examines the continuities and changes in the rhetoric of Rodrigo Duterte’s administration towards Washington since the election of President Donald Trump. Second, it identifies areas of cooperation as well as broader expectations in the Philippine-U.S. relations due to the personal rapport between the two controversial leaders; it evaluates whether there have been any significant improvements in bilateral defense cooperation and, by extension, in Duterte’s relations with China, which have undergone rapid transformation over the past two years. The paper aims to provide an informed foundation for prognostications on the trajectory of one of the key bilateral relations in Southeast Asia.

 

A STRONG BUT AMBIGUOUS PARTNERSHIP: INDIA-U.S.TIES UNDER TRUMP
Sumit Kumar

Since the last decade of the 20th century, the relationship between India and the United States has transformed radically, with the two countries having an intense bilateral engagement in a wide range of areas including defense, security, economy, science and technology, nuclear development, education and others. The coming of Donald Trump to power in January 2017 and Trump’s high- resounding appreciation of India and its people further generated hopes about the continuity of the upward movement in the bilateral ties between New Delhi and Washington. With the completion of the first year of Trump’s administration, it is very timely to examine the contours of India-U.S. ties, which will in turn help gauge the future prospects of the strategic partnership between the two sides under the incumbent U.S. administration.

 

ASSESSING THE RELIABILITY OF ABE AND TRUMP’S RELATIONSHIP IN LIGHT OF PAST EFFORTS AND FUTURE UNCERTAINTIES
Kawashima Shin

Since the beginning of the Trump Administration, the U.S. President and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe displayed their good relations on numerous occasions. While alleviating Japanese fears regarding the Japan-U.S. alliance, Trump’s break with a number of his predecessors’ foreign policies serves as a reminder that this good relationship should not be taken for granted. Diplomatic divergences and domestic uncertainties continue to cloud the future of the relationship.

 

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