Mongolia: The Horizon Does Not Choose. From COP17 to the Art of Becoming Indispensable
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In this analysis, Dr. Arnaud Leveau, President of Asia Centre, examines how Mongolia turned COP17 in Ulaanbaatar, and then the Bishkek meeting with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, into two stages of a single strategy: converting its position between two giants into a regional function.
Executive Summary
In the space of three days, Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khürelsükh moved from closing a United Nations summit on desertification to meeting Xi Jinping over fuel-supply security. This sequence is no accident of scheduling. It sums up the method by which Ulaanbaatar is converting its position between two giants into a regional function. This analysis examines how Mongolia mobilises environmental diplomacy, sustains its rapprochement with Beijing while watching its dependence on it, adopts a more cautious posture towards Moscow on matters affecting its energy sovereignty, diversifies its partnerships toward Central Asia, Southeast Asia, Japan, Korea and France, and cultivates, down to the symbolic register, an autonomy that its size and geography deny it materially. It asks, in the end, what it would take to move from buffer state to hinge state.



