Cambodia-Thailand border crisis: In his latest analysis, Dr. Arnaud Leveau explores how the resurgence of tensions between Cambodia and Thailand over the Preah Vihear temple conceals deeper political and economic vulnerabilities in both countries. Cambodia’s internal governance failures, illicit networks, and strategic alliance with China are juxtaposed with Thailand’s fragile political balance—raising alarm over regional stability. Download the full PDF analysis for detailed insights.
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Cambodia-Thailand Border Crisis: A Strategic Distraction Amid Regional Fragility
By Dr. Arnaud Leveau, President, Asia Centre
July 10, 2025
The Cambodia-Thailand border crisis has resurfaced in 2025, reigniting long-standing tensions around the Preah Vihear temple and adjoining regions. While this may appear as a bilateral territorial dispute, Asia Centre’s Dr. Arnaud Leveau argues it masks deeper structural issues, including domestic instability, elite-driven illicit economies, and shifting foreign alignments—particularly with China.
In Cambodia, mounting international scrutiny over transnational crime networks, forced labour, and state complicity in Special Economic Zones (SEZs) has placed the regime under significant pressure. Recent sanctions by the United States and damning reports by Human Rights Watch and Transparency International Cambodia underscore these concerns. Against this backdrop, nationalist rhetoric around Preah Vihear serves as a strategic distraction.
Meanwhile, Thailand faces its own political turmoil following the suspension of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra over leaked conversations with former Cambodian PM Hun Sen. This internal instability has weakened Bangkok’s diplomatic coherence and provided fertile ground for Phnom Penh to exploit the moment.
The full article provides a thorough breakdown of:
Cambodia’s domestic vulnerabilities and elite interests
Thai political fragility and coalition rupture
China’s dual-use infrastructure and strategic involvement
The weaponization of historical memory
ASEAN’s erosion and diplomatic norm breakdown
Arnaud Leveau is the president of Asia Centre. He has over 25 years of hands-on experience in the Indo/Asia-Pacific region in industry (Airbus, Danone, Sciaci), government affairs, strategic consulting, and international relations research. He has notably served on numerous occasions as Airbus Group’s sherpa at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. He holds a PhD in Political Science from the École Normale Supérieure de Lyon, with a focus on South Korean foreign policy. He has worked at several Asian research centres, including the ASEAN Studies Centre at Chulalongkorn University (Thailand), the Centre for Southeast Asian Studies at Kyoto University (Japan), and the Institute for East Asian Studies at Sogang University (South Korea). His research has been supported by the Korea Foundation and the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS). He also served as Deputy Director of the Research Institute on Contemporary Southeast Asia in Bangkok (IRASEC, MEAE – UMIFRE 22). Since 2010, he has been a member of the editorial board of the think tank Asie21 (Futuribles) and took part in the creation of the Asia-Pacific Observatory at the Jean Jaurès Foundation. He is the author of numerous publications on the Korean Peninsula, Thailand, Southeast Asia, and security and defence issues in the Indo-Pacific region. He teaches Asian business environments at Paris Dauphine University PSL (course M212).