Arriving Second: Beijing, Moscow and the Arithmetic of Dependency
[Asia Unfiltered 2026 #8] Arnaud Leveau, PhD, president of Asia Centre, publishes a new opinion piece.
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing, only days after Donald Trump’s own trip, was less a display of strategic confidence than a moment of reassurance. Behind the language of a “no limits” partnership lies a relationship that has become increasingly asymmetric: China needs Russia, but Russia needs China far more.
This imbalance matters. Beijing’s support for Moscow appears driven less by solidarity than by strategic calculation sustaining Russia as a useful counterweight without becoming tied to its outcomes.
For Europe, the lesson is not that a unified authoritarian bloc is emerging, but that the growing hierarchy within the Sino-Russian relationship creates room for others to act. In Asia, middle powers increasingly represent one of Europe’s most important strategic opportunities.



