Arriving Second: Beijing, Moscow and Dependency

Auteur de la note

Arnaud Leveau is President of Asia Centre, Founder of Alta Strategies and Associate Professor at Paris Dauphine University.

He has nearly 30 years of experience across the Indo-Pacific, spanning business, government affairs, and research. His career includes positions in leading organisations such as Airbus, Danone, Sciaci Saint Honoré, and French Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

He has held academic and research positions at the Chulalongkorn University, Kyoto University, and Sogang University. He also served as Deputy Director of the French Research Institute on Contemporary Southeast Asia.

Arnaud Leveau holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the École Normale Supérieure de Lyon. He is a member of the Asie21 and the author of numerous publications on the Korean Peninsula, Thailand, and Southeast Asia.

His work focuses on strategic and geopolitical dynamics in the Indo-Pacific, with a particular emphasis on defence, security, and international relations.

Autres analyses

Taiwan cooking oil scandal: Why Isn’t Beijing Adding Fuel to the Fire? • Isabelle Feng

31 July 2026 No Comments

In this new piece, Isabelle Feng looks back at the tainted cooking oil scandal that has affected Taiwan for several weeks, and at Beijing’s measured response to the affair. She examines the protests held in Taipei on 25 July, the coverage of the event by Chinese state media, and reactions observed on Chinese social media. She puts this episode in perspective alongside the history of food safety scandals in mainland China and the question of freedom to protest on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.

Asia Sparks | The Birth of a Giant: How South Korean military exports are shaking the weapons market worldwide • Tudual Le Droumaguet

29 July 2026 No Comments

This Spark examines the transformation of South Korea’s defence industry, known domestically as K-Bangsan, into a major global arms exporter, currently ranked ninth worldwide with an ambition to reach fourth place by 2030.

The Hotel and the Steppe | Shangri-La, Ulaanbaatar and two ideas of order • Arnaud Leveau (PhD)

22 June 2026 No Comments

PDF The Hotel and the Steppe | Shangri-La, Ulaanbaatar and two ideas of order [Asia Unfiltered 2026 #9] Arnaud Leveau, PhD, president of Asia Centre, publishes a new opinion piece, “The

Dr. Arnaud Leveau, President of Asia Centre
May 22, 2026
11:15 am

Arriving Second: Beijing, Moscow and the Arithmetic of Dependency

[Asia Unfiltered 2026 #8] Arnaud Leveau, PhD, president of Asia Centre, publishes a new opinion piece.

↑ Download the article using the PDF button above.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing, only days after Donald Trump’s own trip, was less a display of strategic confidence than a moment of reassurance. Behind the language of a “no limits” partnership lies a relationship that has become increasingly asymmetric: China needs Russia, but Russia needs China far more.

This imbalance matters. Beijing’s support for Moscow appears driven less by solidarity than by strategic calculation sustaining Russia as a useful counterweight without becoming tied to its outcomes.

For Europe, the lesson is not that a unified authoritarian bloc is emerging, but that the growing hierarchy within the Sino-Russian relationship creates room for others to act. In Asia, middle powers increasingly represent one of Europe’s most important strategic opportunities.